Fighting has erupted again between Boko Haram (Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, JAS) and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Abadam Local Government Area of Borno State, just two weeks after a reconciliation attempt failed.
This latest conflict follows a pattern of violence between the two factions in the Lake Chad Basin.
According to counterinsurgency expert Zagazola Makama, the fighting broke out on February 14th near ISWAP camps in Toumbun Gini and Toumbun Ali, with ISWAP reportedly suffering significant losses in the water-based battle. He suggests the conflict could escalate and spread to Kukawa LGA.
The two groups have been at odds since ISWAP's split from Boko Haram in 2016, following ISWAP's allegiance pledge to the Islamic State. Ideological disagreements, particularly regarding the definition of "kufar" (apostate) and their execution, fueled the initial split and subsequent failed reconciliation attempts.
The Islamic State officially recognized ISWAP's leader, Abu Musab al-Barnawi, in 2016, further solidifying the division.
Boko Haram's former leader, Abubakar Shekau, who had pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2015, led the group until his death in 2021. His successor, Bakura Doro, recently sought reconciliation with ISWAP, according to researchers Malik Samuel and a Borno-based journalist.
Mr. Samuel stated that ISWAP formed a committee to consider the request, but the renewed fighting suggests the effort failed.
Experts believe the ongoing rivalry, which has likely claimed more insurgent lives than military operations, weakens both groups. They have now adopted guerilla tactics, including IED attacks, indicating a decline in combat strength.
However, this doesn't signify a government victory, as ISWAP continues to strengthen its influence within local communities.
The instability in the Lake Chad region has led the European Union to allocate €201 million in humanitarian aid.
Mr. Samuel believes the renewed fighting is advantageous for Nigerian and regional authorities. He suggested that Boko Haram's reconciliation attempt may have been motivated by ISWAP's international recognition, including training received from foreign ISIS instructors.
He clarified that Boko Haram's existing funding model, based on local taxation, likely wasn't a factor in the reconciliation effort.
The continued rivalry, marked by differing beliefs on issues like civilian treatment, presents a complex challenge for the region.
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