CNN — Months of feverish negotiations, in different cities and at multiple levels, have gotten Israel and Hamas closer to striking a ceasefire deal. But even if an agreement is reached – still far from certain – it could end up lasting only weeks before it collapses and the war in Gaza resumes.
As senior negotiators prepare to meet this weekend in Cairo, there are still several sticking points in the talks over the potential three-phase agreement. But Israel has made it clear that following the initial six-week phase, a break in the fighting may be just that and it is not ready to agree to a permanent ceasefire.
“I am ready to do a partial deal, it is no secret, that will bring back some of the people,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14 in late June. “But we are committed to continue the war after the pause in order to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas. I will not give up on this.”
There’s no indication that Israel’s position has changed and the fact this stance doesn’t violate the agreement being discussed represents a breakthrough for Israel in the negotiations. It essentially allows Israel – and Hamas – to abandon discussions after the six-week first phase and resume the war.
That breakthrough was a concession by the Palestinian militant group, which has been pushing for the temporary pause to seamlessly transition to a permanent ceasefire and the war to end.
The sister-in-law of a deceased Israeli hostage who met with Netanyahu this week, Riki Baruch, told CNN her takeaway from the meeting was “the prime minister’s promise to defeat Hamas, and to continue fighting until the last of the hostages returns.”
The sister-in-law of a deceased Israeli hostage who met with Netanyahu this week, Riki Baruch, told CNN her takeaway from the meeting was “the Prime Minister’s promise to defeat Hamas, and to continue fighting until the last of the hostages returns.”
Knowing that the long-sought-after agreement wouldn’t guarantee an end to the war, US officials have lowered their expectations and focused on getting first to a period of calm, even if it’s technically just temporary, hoping that enough pressure would build on multiple fronts during the pause to prevent the reignition of violence.
“What we’re focused on right now is getting a ceasefire deal in place, getting those hostages home, getting six weeks of calm,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last week. “That’s really what our goal is right now.”
A ceasefire deal that leads to a pause in fighting would be welcomed by countless people on both sides. Palestinians in Gaza, almost all of whom have been displaced, would get a respite after almost a year of continuous Israeli bombing, along with desperately needed aid. Israeli families would get hostages or their remains home after 10 painful months of waiting.
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